A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
